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As Iran’s military continues to lose ground, President Trump is considering joining combat against Iran.

1. Markets remain relatively quiet, with participants watching the ongoing war between Iran and Israel which has now entered its sixth day. Yesterday saw Israel score major tactical successes through air power which has led to a 90% reduction in Iranian missile fire. The Iranian regime again made major threats to inflict massive damage on Tel Aviv but was unable to fire more than 40 ballistic missiles during the hours of darkness, doing little damage, with no fatalities. It seems quite certain that Israel has been able to significantly suppress the missile fire by the use of air power. However, it has been revealed that Iran was able two days ago to put Israel’s oil refinery in Haifa out of action.
2. President Trump continues to take a hard line on Iran, saying he wants the regime’s complete surrender and that Iran cannot be allowed a nuclear weapon, and signaling a total lack of support for a ceasefire. In the past few hours, Israel destroyed the Fordow plant’s air defense system. President Trump is considering joining battle, and there are reports he has sent two B2 stealth bombers to the region, which would be used to destroy Fordow with bunker busters. Fordow is the key to Iran’s nuclear weaponisation program.
3. The USA is positioning for something major before the weekend begins, according to open signal intelligence.
4. Markets seem to be a bit more nervous today, as the price of WTI Crude Oil remains near its 4-month high. If Iran moves to attack US bases, close the Strait of Hormuz, and possibly attack refineries in other countries, we can expect a major spike higher.
5. Silver has made a strong bullish move, now trading above $37 per ounce at a new 13-year high and holding up near the top of its range. Trend traders will likely already be involved here on the long side.
6. The US Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting later today. Practically nobody is expecting any change to interest rates there.
7. The Forex market remains relatively quiet, with subdued movement against the US Dollar as the London session begins. The EUR/USD currency pair is rising again in line with its bullish long-term trend, which will be interesting to trend traders.
8. UK inflation ticked down from an annualized rate of 3.5% to 3.4%, although this was slightly higher than the consensus forecast of 3.3%.