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Forex Today: Markets Expecting US Inflation to Rise to 2.9%
By Adam Lemon Created on January 15, 2025
All eyes will be on today’s scheduled release of US CPI (inflation) data, which is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.4%.
- The single most important data point in the Forex market has been US CPI (inflation) data for some years now, and there will be such a release today. US CPI is expected to rise by 0.4% month-on-month, up from the previous month’s increase of 0.3%. If it does, that will see an increase in the annualized inflation rate from 2.7% to 2.9%. If the data today is higher than expected, it will likely boost the US Dollar and send major US equity indices like the S&P 500 Index lower, and vice-versa if it is lower than expected.
- Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan has stated that rates will be hiked at the policy meeting next week if economic data justifies it. This comment boosted the Yen during today’s earlier Tokyo session.
- The Forex market is in focus due to the recent strong movement in the US Dollar, although this has paused as markets now await US inflation data. Trend traders will remain interested in being short of the EUR/USD currency pair and long of the USD/JPY currency pair, although the latter trade is in serious doubt as the Bank of Japan begins to signal a rate hike.
- UK CPI (inflation) data released earlier today came in markedly lower than expected, showing an annualized rate of 2.5% when 2.7% was widely expected. Surprisingly, this news caused little movement in the British Pound, but it might be expected to be bearish for the Pound as it will increase pressure for rate cuts on the Bank of England.
- The US 10-Year Treasury Yield a new 1-year high yesterday and will attract interest from trend traders on the long side. Some CFD brokers offer this to traders, and micro futures are available on the CME.
- There will be a release of Australian Unemployment data later.
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