• Oil rigs -3 at 485
• Natural gas rigs unchanged at 98
• Total rigs -2 at 588

The price of crude oil is trading at $80.55 it’s down $0.72 or -0.89% on the day

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As the clock ticks to the end of the trading week, the USDCAD has moved higher after reaching a new low for the week earlier in the trading day.

On the way to the low, the price did move back below its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687. It also fell below the broken 38.2% retracement of the trading range since mid April (two month trading range). The level also is at 1.3687. The failure on the break of both those levels disappointed that the sellers and has led to a bounce back rally in the North American session.

That move to the upside has taken the price back up to test the 50% midpoint of the two-month trading range at 1.3717. So far the price has stalled against that the level.

The move back toward the 50% midpoint just that neither buyers or sellers are willing to take control.

Fundamentally, the Bank of Canada did cut rates at their last interest-rate decision becoming one of the first G-7 countries to do so. However, after peaking within a swing area between 1.3784 1.3803, the price has been up and down over the last seven or so trading days. Moreover, the current price is below the 50% of the two-month trading range. On the positive side it is above the 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3687, and is trading above and below the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart of 1.37079.

So buyers and sellers seem to be pointing into next week where perhaps there is more of a shift in the technical bias one way or the other.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US is determined to dominate semiconductors and not allow China to catch up.

• New proposed rules restrict US investment in key sectors
• Rules ban certain investments in design, automation, fabrication and advanced packaging tools
• Quantum computers and AI also targeted
• Proposes notification requirements for all other investments in Chinese AI system development

The US is going to use every tool at its disposal to prevent anyone else from getting in the chips and AI game. But remember, the US outlawed Huawei, had the founder’s daughter arrested and banned all technology in its phones. Yet within a couple years, the company replaced more than 13,000 parts and redesigned 4000 circuit boards to overcome US sanctions, something The Economist wrote about.

It’s tough to bet against Chinese manufacturing and surely Beijing will be putting all its weight behind catching up.

The question is: Would they go all the way to Taiwan to get ahead?

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The S&P index and in the NASDAQ and a are now trading in positive territory and at highs for the day:

The NASDAQ is leading the way with a gain of 50 points or 0.28% at 17770.44. The S&P index is up 2.23 points or 0.04% of 5475.42.

For the trading week, both indices are on pace to close higher:

• NASDAQ index is currently up 0.46%
• S&P index is up 0.80%

Meanwhile, the Dow industrial average is now lower on a day by -28 points or -0.07% at 39106. Despite the decline, the index is still up 1.34% for the trading week.

Both the S&P and NASDAQ indices made new all-time high closing levels this week:

• NASDAQ index all-time high closing level comes in at 17862.22
• S&P all-time high closing level comes in at 5487.02

For the Dow Industrial Average average, it’s all-time high closing level came in on Monday the 17th at 40,003.60.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Closing changes in the main European bourses:

• Stoxx 600 -0.6%
• German DAX -0.35%
• UK FTSE 100 -0.4%
• French CAC -0.4%
• Italy MIB -0.9%
• Spain IBEX -1.0%

On the week:

• Stoxx 600 +0.9%
• German DAX +1.1%
• UK FTSE 100 +1.6%
• French CAC +1.8%
• Italy MIB +2.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.5%

These are some nice weekly numbers but they come after a battering on political worries.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The GBPJPY has been on an upward trend this week, but it turned lower during the European session following weaker-than-expected flash PMI data. The price dropped below its 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above at 200.77) but found support near the 200-hour moving average and the lower boundary of a swing area between 200.41 and 200.825.

After finding support, the pair rallied to last week’s high of 201.60. A break above this level could trigger further upside momentum, pushing the GBPJPY to its highest level since September 2008. Additionally, the price has moved above the 61.8% retracement level of the trading range since the 2007 high, which is at 199.808 (see monthly chart below).

Buyers remain in control. The only thing in the way for further gains right now is the high price from last week. Sellers who think the price has gone too far could lean against that level with a stop above.

Buyers meanwhile want to see a break with momentum above that level.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD this week traded down to test a swing area between 0.6575 and 0.6590. The subsequent move to the upside then tested the high of a swing area between 0.6677 and 0.66896 (see the chart below).

Staying with the confines of the “red box” where most of the trading has taken place over the last 6-7 weeks keeps the ups and downs as the favored trading strategy.

The price decline off the high has now reached the 100 and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart. Both those moving averages are near converged at 0.6638. They also represent the bias-defining level between the extremes.

Moving below the moving averages now would tilt the technical bias more in favor of the seller’s with the low of the trading range as the next key targets (low of the red box).

Staying above the moving averages keeps the buyers more in control, and the door open for a retest of the high of the trading range (high of the red box).

At some point the red box will be broken and remain broken as market traders figure out the next trend-like move. For now buyers and sellers are happy to trade the range.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY bulls are playing with fire.

The pair is up for a seventh straight day after a surprisingly strong US services PMI. The reading of 55.1 is a 26-month high and well above the 53.7 consensus.

The report sparked broad US dollar buying and has pushed USD/JPY closer to the 160.00 line in the sand. That’s where the Japanese Ministry of Finance last intervened, sending the pair plunging as low as 151.85.

I close here would be a fresh 34-year closing high in the pair. Yesterday, I wrote about five reasons that the pair had been climbing.

The last time, officials allowed for a brief break of 160.00 before stomping on the market. There is a chance they could allow it to break those intraday highs or run to 165.00 before stepping in. The official lines are that they’re not setting price levels but want to avoid disorderly moves.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.6%
• Leading index for May -0.5% versus -0.3% estimate.

There have only been one positive reading since April 2022. The data will predict the recession one day.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior was 4.10m
• Inventory at 3.7 months vs 3.5m prior
• Median price +5.8% from May 2023 at $419.3K
• Sales down 0.7% m/m

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.