US June S&P Global flash services PMI 55.1 vs 53.7

  • 26-month high
  • Prior was 54.8
  • Manufacturing 51.7 vs 51.0 expected
  • Prior manufacturing was 51.3
  • Composite 54.6 vs 54.5
  • Selling prices ‘at one of the lowest levels of the past four years’ and a five-month low
  • “Improved business confidence for the year ahead, notably
    in the service sector, as well as renewed pressure on
    operating capacity from rising demand”
  • Services future prospects hit a five-month high
  • Service sector payrolls rose to the
    greatest extent for five months, helping reverse some of
    the declines seen in the sector over the prior two months

The services number is above the highest economist estimate and points to an economy that’s strong and resilient. However the pricing numbers are also moving in the right direction and that could limit the hawkish reaction.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business
Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

“The early PMI data signal the fastest economic expansion
for over two years in June, hinting at an encouragingly
robust end to the second quarter while at the same time
inflation pressures have cooled.
The PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the
economy growing at an annualized rate of just under 2.5%.
The upturn is broad-based, as rising demand continues to
filter through the economy. Although led by the service
sector, reflecting strong domestic spending, the expansion
is being supported by an ongoing recovery in
manufacturing, which so far this year is enjoying its best
growth spell for two years.
The survey also brings welcome news in terms of job
gains, with a renewed appetite to hire being driven by
improved business optimism about the outlook.
Selling price inflation has meanwhile cooled again after
ticking higher in May, down to one of the lowest levels seen
over the past four years. Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey’s price gauge into
line with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”

Prices:

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

  • Related Posts

    Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 21 Jun: The USD moves higher helped better flash S&P

    The week is coming to a close with the USD being the strongest of the major currencies. The JPY is the weakest.The gains in the greenback today were helped by stronger-than-expected flash PMI data that saw services index rise to 55.1 vs 53.7 expected, and the manufacturing rise to 51.7 above estimate of 51.0.

    For the USDJPY, it rose to the highest level since the April peak when the price traded to 60.208. The high price today reached 159.774.

    Going into the new trading week in the USDJPY, a move above the 160.208 level would take the price of the pair to the highest level going back to 1990 where the high for the year reached to 160.40. Move above that level, and the USDJPY is trading at the highest level since January 1987. Those levels are the progression given more upside momentum in the new week.

    Of course, the risk exists that the BOJ intervenes. When the price moved above 160.00 the last time, intervention sent the pair quickly down to 155.19 in short order. Another intervention move sent the price from 157.58 to 152.99. The current price is between the two extremes that attracted intervention.

    Today, BOJ and Japan officials tried to jawbone the JPY higher( USDJPY lower), but was unsuccessful. Will they be inclined to be more direct next week?

    For the trading week, the USD was mixed. The greenback rose vs the JPY, EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD and NZD and fell vs the CAD and AUD. Look at the major pairs:

    • USDJPY rose 1.51% (USD higher)
    • EURUSD fell -0.11% (USD higher)
    • GBPUSD fell -0.342% (USD higher)
    • USDCHF rose 0.46% (USD higher)
    • USDCAD fell -0.33% (USD lower)
    • AUDUSD rose 0.38% (USD lower)
    • NZDUSD fell -0.39% (USD higher)

    The greenback rose vs the CHF despite the SNB cutting rates this week by 0.25%. The BOE kept rates unchanged but the statement was somewhat dovish and flash PMI data was weakish today.

    In other markets today, the US stocks ended the day mixed. For the 2nd consecutive day, the Dow is ending higher (only marginally), while the S&P and the Nasdaq indexes moved lower.

    The final numbers for the day are showing:

    • Dow Industrial Average average rose 15.57 points or 0.04% at 39150.34.
    • S&P index fell -8.55 points or -0.16% at 5464.61
    • NASDAQ index fell -32.23 points or -0.18% at 17689.36

    The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 4.64 points or 0.23% at 2022.03.

    For the trading week the S&P and Dow Industrial Average average rose while the NASDAQ closed the week virtually unchanged:

    • Dow Industrial Average average, +1.45%
    • S&P index, +0.61%
    • Nasdaq index rose 0.48 points which is less than 0.00%, but technically an up week by the slimmest of margins.

    This week, the S&P and Nasdaq set new all time high close levels:

    • S&P new all-time high close is 5487.02
    • Nasdaq new high close is now at 17862.23

    In the US debt market:

    • 2-year yield 4.736%
    • 5-year yield 4.276%.
    • 10-year yield 4.257%.
    • 30-year yield 4.399%

    For the trading week:

    • 2 year yield rose 2.9 basis points
    • 5 year yield rose 3.6 basis points
    • 10-year yield rose 3.4 basis points
    • 30- year yield rose 4.9 basis points

    Thank you for your support. Have a great weekend

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

    Key Events and Releases to Watch Next Week in Trading

    • Mon, Jun 24, 3 AM ET. USD: FOMC member Waller speaking
    • Mon, Jun 24, 1:45pm CAD: BOC Gov Macklem Speaks

    Tuesday June 25

    • Tue, Jun 25, 8:30am CAD: CPI m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%), Median CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.6%, Previous: 2.6%),Trimmed CPI y/y (Estimate: 2.8%, Previous: 2.9%)
    • Tue, Jun 25, 10:00am USD: CB Consumer Confidence (Estimate: 100.2, Previous: 102.0)
    • Tue, Jun 25, 10:00AM USD: Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Estimate 2.0. Previous 0.0

    Wednesday, June 26

    • Weds, Jun 26, 9:30pm ET (Tuesday) AUD: CPI y/y (Estimate: 3.5%, Previous: 3.6%)

    Thursday, June 27

    • Thu, Jun 27, 5:30am GBP: BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
    • Thu, Jun 27, 8:30am USD: Final GDP Q1 q/q (Estimate: 1.4%, Previous: 1.3%)
    • Thu, Jun 27, USD: Unemployment Claims (Estimate: 240K, Previous: 238K)
    • Thu, Jun 27, USD. Durable goods orders (Estimate -0.1%, previous 0.6%), Core durable goods orders (Estimate 0.1%. Previous 0.4%
    • Thu, Jun 27, 10:00am USD: Pending Home Sales m/m (Estimate: -7.7%, Previous: -7.7%)

    Friday June 28

    • Fri, Jun 28, 8:30am CAD: GDP m/m (Estimate: 0.3%, Previous: 0.0%)
    • Fri, Jun 28, USD: Core PCE Price Index m/m (Estimate: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%)
    • Fri, Jun 28, 10:00am USD: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Estimate: 65.9, Previous: 65.6)

    In addition to the above the US treasury will auction off:

    • June 25, 2-year notes
    • Jun 26: 5 -year notes
    • Jun 27: 7-year notes

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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