US Inflation Hits 3%

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed higher for a fourth consecutive month in January 2025. The CPI edged higher to 3% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in December and above the market estimate of 2.9%. Monthly, the CPI rose by 0.5%, up from 0.4% in December and above the market estimate of 0.3%. It marked the highest monthly inflation rate since August 2023, driven by higher shelter and food costs.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, edged up in January to 3.3% y/y from 3.2% and above the market estimate of 3.2%. Monthly, core CPI climbed 0.4%, up from 0.2% and above the market estimate of 0.3%.

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Fed’s Powell: No Rush to Lower Rates

What does the softer-than-expected inflation report mean for the Federal Reserve? The markets remain virtually certain that the Fed will maintain rates in March, but expectations for a rate cut in May have dropped significantly to only 9%, compared to 21% just one day ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. The US economy is performing well and the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates with inflation moving higher.

Even before the inflation release, Fed Chair Powell told a Senate Banking committee on Tuesday that the Fed “does not need to be in a hurry” to adjust policy. Powell said that rate policy remains restrictive but the Fed would be careful not to lower rates too quickly or too slowly. Powell declined to comment on President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs but acknowledged that tariffs could raise inflation and complicate the Fed’s plans to lower rates.

US Dollar Higher After Inflation Report, Stock Market Futures Sharply Lower

The US dollar has posted gains against the major currencies in the aftermath of today’s soft inflation report. The GBP/USD currency pair is down 0.47% and EUR/USD is down 0.37%. The US dollar could continue to post further gains today as investors digest the soft inflation report.

• US stock futures are sharply lower on Wednesday, shortly before the opening of the US stock market.
• E-Mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.99% (60.50 points), trading at 6,031.75 points.
• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 1.07% (232.50 points) at 21,555.50.