The weekend’s attempted assassination of former President Trump is seen as likely to further boost the candidate’s standing in the polls, with betting markets implying he has a 65% chance of winning the Presidential election.

1. What must surely have been an assassination attempt on former President Trump took place on Saturday. Several shots were fired from a nearby roof with one hitting Trump’s ear, drawing some blood. Trump was ushered off stage, but questions are being asked as to how the Secret Service failed to secure such a nearby rooftop. Eyebrows were also raised at how long it took security to get Trump off the stage and to a hospital. In any case, former President Trump seems little more than grazed and has proceeded with his schedule. President Biden strongly condemned the shooting and called for unity. Politically, this can be expected to benefit Trump and possibly further raise the lead he has also begun to build over President Biden in recent weeks. Betting markets currently imply a 65% of a Trump victory.
2. Stronger likelihood of a Trump Presidency has sent US treasury yields lower during Monday’s Asian session, as Trump is expected to pursue the kind of economic policies that will be likely to generate lower interest rates: tax cuts, higher tariffs, and looser regulations.
3. The US Dollar dipped a little earlier but has regained enough strength to be the strongest major currency in the Forex market since today’s Tokyo open, while the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest, putting the NZD/USD currency pair in focus.
4. Bitcoin has risen strongly already today to a new 2-week high and is trading very near the high of its range. Some analysts attribute the strong gains in Bitcoin since Saturday as pointing to an expectation that a President Trump will go easier on Bitcoin and crypto regulation.
5. Major Asian stock market indices are lower, with the HSI almost 1.4% down on the day just before close. However, futures in major US stock indices have ticked a bit higher today.
6. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be giving a minor speech later today.
7. There will be a release of Empire State Manufacturing Index data in the USA today.

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