Stock markets remain mostly weak, especially in the USA, as the ongoing trade war involving the USA is still unresolved, with new tariffs here to stay at least for the time being.

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1. Global stock markets are mostly weak, especially in the USA where major indices are trading near recent lows although without much momentum. This is due to the ongoing trade war between the USA on one hand and Canada, Mexico, China, and possibly the EU on the other. Recent new tariffs remain in force, threatening economic growth and inflation, with no deal in sight. As long as this situation continues, stock markets are likely to remain weak, although the S&P 500 Index is refusing to decisively break below its 200-day moving average so this could be a pivotal point.
2. Data last week from the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggested that the US economy may be contracting with negative GDP. The data is still quite speculative but it has raised fears the US is near to tipping into a recession.
3. Japanese base pay data released earlier showed base pay is growing at its fastest annualized rate since 1992, at 3.2%, strengthening the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and boosting the Yen. The USD/JPY currency pair is very close to a valid long-term bearish trend.
4. In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today’s Tokyo open, while the Swiss Franc has been the weakest, although the values are not strong enough to be very significant.
5. Natural Gas futures reached a new multi-year high price on Friday, justifying the bullishness of trend traders. Many traders might find Natural Gas futures too large for their portfolio, so the ETF UNG might be used instead as a more affordable substitute.
6. Gold is holding up quite well despite widespread strong selloffs in commodities.
7. Bitcoin fell strongly over the past day but seems to have found support in recent hours at the $80,741 level .
8. There are no high impact data releases due today.

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