The Reserve Bank of Australia leaves its interest rate unchanged but strongly hints at rate cuts over the coming months.

1. In its policy meeting a few hours ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% as was widely expected. However, in its statement and comments, the Bank said that upside inflation risks have eased, strongly hinting that rate cuts would be happening soon, although not today. This weakened the Aussie slightly, which is leading the AUD/USD currency pair now to be very close to testing its multi-month low at $0.6372.
2. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin fell quite firmly yesterday in the aftermath of last week’s bullish breakout beyond $100,000. At one point a few hours ago it traded below $95,000 which if repeated, will shake out a long of trend traders from their long positions. The crypto sector in general has taken a downturn over the past day. It still seems as if Bitcoin may not be ready to advance significantly beyond the $100,000 area, calling the recent Trump-induced crypto rally into question. However, the question about Bitcoin’s near-term path is not settled.
3. Major stock market indices which reached record highs last week fell yesterday, but the drops were nothing special. The bullish trends survive in the S&P 500, the NASDAQ 100 Index, and in the DAX
4. In the Forex market, since today’s Tokyo open, the Swiss Franc has been the biggest gainer and the Australian the biggest loser. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a valid long-term bearish trend, but is showing no real sign of falling back below the big round number at $1.0500.
5. Cocoa futures traded at a new 7-month high yesterday before giving up most of the gain by the end of the day. There is a chance of a significant long-term bullish breakout today though. Cocoa has seen a strong increase in value over the past few weeks, and the market will remember the spectacular rally in Cocoa in 2023 which saw the price of the superfood triple within only 4 or 5 months.
6. There are no high-impact economic data releases scheduled for the rest of today. Markets will start to look ahead to tomorrow’s very important release of US CPI (inflation) data, expecting the annualized rate to increase from 2.6% to 2.7%.

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