Forex Today: Markets Expecting 0.3% MoM Increase in US CPI

By Adam Lemon Created on March 12, 2025

Markets are closely watching the US CPI (inflation) data release due today, which is expected to show prices rising by 0.3% month-on-month.

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US CPI (inflation) data due today is expected to show a month-on-month increase in prices of 0.3%. A deviation from this result will likely cause volatility in the US Dollar and in the US stock market.
Global stock markets are recovering a bit today after another poor showing yesterday, mostly on Trump’s downplaying the recent market selloff and promising to back down on the new 50% Canada import tariff. The USA and Canada also concluded a joint announcement that the recent Canadian surcharge of 25% on electricity exports is ending. Ukraine’s announcement that it accepts a US plan for a temporary ceasefire has also helped lighten the mood.
The Bank of Canada will be holding a policy meeting today and is expected to cut its Overnight Rate from 3.0% to 2.75%.
Governor Ueda of the Bank of Japan made comments which were bearish for the Yen, stating that underlying Japanese inflation is still below the Bank’s 2% target rate. The USD/JPY currency pair is very close to a valid long-term bearish trend after markets recently saw further capital inflows into the Yen as part of a slight to safety. The USD/JPY only requires a New York close below ¥147.26 to qualify.
In the Forex market, the US Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today’s Tokyo open, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, putting the USD/JPY in focus.
Gold is holding up relatively well despite widespread strong selloffs in commodities.
Bitcoin fell yesterday to trade at a new 4-month low price, but at the time of writing is struggling to break up above the pivotal new resistance level at $83,277.
US JOLTS Job Openings data came in a bit stronger than expected yesterday