1. Tonight’s policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve is almost universally expected to produce a third consecutive rate cut of 0.25%, and a lowering of the Fed’s dot plot forecast for further cuts in 2025. Any surprise deviations from this script will likely produce a strong movement in the US Dollar and in US stock markets.
2. US stock markets remain bullish, although no major indices made a new high yesterday.
3. The major cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose yesterday to trade at a new all-time high above $108,000 before making a firm bearish reversal. Bitcoin is currently heading lower still based on the current short-term price action. Trend and momentum traders will be eager to be long of Bitcoin now. If buying spot Bitcoin is difficult for you, there are Bitcoin micro futures offered on the CME which are sized at only one-tenth of a Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are also widely available, but these sometimes fail to track the underlying accurately, especially during strong bull markets like we have today.
4. The Brazilian Real fell to reach a new all-time low yesterday, putting the USD/BRL exotic currency pair in focus. The bullish breakout is a bit choppy. The Real is hit on bad Brazilian fiscal news which has led the central bank to hike rates, which President Lula has spoken again. Lula’s allies are expected to take effective control of the bank in 2025 so there are fears the bank may become reluctant to hike rates.
5. Cocoa futures rose again yesterday to reach a new all-time high price just below $12,000 per ton. Cocoa has seen a very strong increase in value (approximately a 40% gain) over the past few weeks, and the market will remember the spectacular rally in Cocoa in 2023 which saw the price of the superfood triple within only 4 or 5 months. Trend traders will be interested in being long of Cocoa futures. Unfortunately for retail traders, the smallest Cocoa future available has a position size of $100,000 but there is a Cocoa exchange-traded commodity (ETC) ticker COCO available on the London Stock Exchange which is very affordable. The “ETC aims to replicate the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Total Return Index (BCOMCCTR) by tracking the Bloomberg Cocoa Sub Excess Return Index.”
6. In the Forex market, since today’s Tokyo open, the Euro has been the biggest gainer and the Australian Dollar again the biggest loser. The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a valid long-term bearish trend and made a bearish breakdown below the big round number at $1.0500 last week. The NZD/USD currency pair made a new 2-year low a few hours ago, while the USD/CAD just hit a new 4-year high. The commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) are generally weak, and the US Dollar is generally strong.
7. US Retail Sales data yesterday was stronger than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.7%.
8. Canadian CPI (inflation) data yesterday was a fraction lower than expected, showing no month-on-month change in the price index.
9. There are two high-impact data releases scheduled for today:
   • UK CPI (inflation) data, which is expected to show an increase in the annualized rate from 2.3% to 2.6%.
   • New Zealand GDP data, which is expected to show a quarterly contraction of 0.2%.

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