• Inflation falls to 1.6%, a three-year low
• Key core inflation indicators unchanged
• Canadian Dollar shows muted response

September Inflation Falls to 1.6%

Canada’s inflation rate continues to fall and was lower than expected in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2% in August and below the market level of 1.8%. This marked the lowest level since February 2021. Monthly, inflation declined by 0.4%, lower than the August reading of -0.2% and the market estimate of -0.2%. The decline in inflation was mainly driven by a sharp drop in gasoline prices, a reflection of a decline in crude oil prices.

The average of two of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) core measures of inflation was unchanged in September at 2.35%. Core CPI excludes food and energy items and is considered a more reliable indicator of inflation trends than headline CPI.

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Will BoC Lower Rates by 25 or 50 basis points?

The Bank of Canada meets next on October 23 and policymakers face a tough choice. The Bank is likely to cut rates, but by how much? The markets were looking at a modest 25 basis-point cut and last week’s strong employment report raised the probability of a 25-bps move. With inflation largely beaten, the BoC’s primary focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, which has been on a steady downswing but bounced back in September. If the labor market is getting stronger, this would support a modest 25bps cut.

Today’s softer-than-expected decline in inflation, however, supports the case for a 50-basis point (bps) cut. Also, economic activity remains subdued and a 50-bps cut would ease the heavy burden of elevated interest rates on the economy.

There are no further key events ahead of the BoC meeting, which means that policymakers will have to make their rate decision based on the current data. The markets have priced in a 50-bps cut in October at 68%, but the rate-cut odds are sure to swing in the days leading up to next week’s rate announcement.

Canadian Dollar Shrugs, Stock Market Dips

The USD/CAD currency pair is showing little reaction to the inflation report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3809, up 0.10%.

The benchmark Canadian index, the S&P/TSX, opened a short time ago and is in negative territory. The index has declined by 79.57 points (0.33%) at 24,391.