The Indian Rupee, like many Asian currencies, is suffering from long-term weakness, driving it to close at a record low Friday against the US Dollar.

1. The Indian Rupee is close to trading at a new record low against the US Dollar, after making a record low close last Friday. Much will depend upon whether the Reserve Bank of India will attempt to intervene in the market to prop up the Rupee, putting the USD/INR currency pair in focus. Breakout traders may be interested in looking for a short trade here, while Indian investors may be looking to move Rupee cash into other currencies.
2. Yesterday was a dramatic day in American politics as President Biden, after a few weeks of speculation following his disastrous debate performance against former President Trump, announced his withdrawal from the election in November. He endorsed his Vice President Kamala Harris. However, the primary elections have already taken place and Biden’s strong majority of delegates cannot be automatically gifted to any candidate, raising the prospect of the first contested major party convention in the USA since 1968, which ironically was also the Democrats in Chicago. That convention saw the start of years of misery for the Democratic Party. Former President Obama has pointedly refused to endorse Kamala Harris, so it seems he has another candidate in mind, while still having a role as a kingmaker in the Democratic Party. Markets have reacted quite calmly, with US stock markets rising a little, and a US Dollar failing to rise after hitting a key zone of resistance. However, these movements are quite normal and could easily have happened without the news. Betting markets suggest Harris has only a 38% chance of beating President Trump.
3. Asian stock markets have been mixed today, with the Chinese HSI closing higher on the day, while the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index is down by more than 1%.
4. In the Forex market, since today’s Tokyo open, the Australian Dollar has been the weakest major currency in the Forex market, while the Japanese Yen has been the strongest. The US Dollar has failed to break above nearby resistance so is now looking weak and likely to trade lower after failing to rise. The EUR/USD currency pair looks likely to rise on US Dollar weakness so might be a good currency pair to watch today.
5. Bitcoin is falling after making a new 1-month high right at the key resistance level of $68,474.

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