Forex Today: Stocks in USA and Japan Power to Record Highs - 04 July 2024

Global stock markets had a strongly bullish day yesterday, with major indices in the USA and Japan climbing firmly to reach new all-time high prices.

The past day has been bullish for stock markets. After closing above 20,000 for the first time on Tuesday, the NASDAQ 100 Index rose strongly to close near 20,200 and trade at a new record high. The broader S&P 500 Index also rose to reach a new all-time high. Most global equity indices are bullish, with Japan the other standout as both the TOPIX and Nikkei 225 Indices have risen strongly today to new all-time highs, with closes looking likely very near the top of the day’s ranges. These are bullish signs for equities and trend traders will want to be involved here on the long side.
The Japanese Yen continued to weaken yesterday, with the USD/JPY currency pair trading at a new 38-year high of ¥161.95 during the New York session before a very sharp fall occurred which was likely caused by market intervention by the Bank of Japan. However, the price bounced back to recover most of this loss, but has settled into more stable, arguably somewhat bearish price action. Trend traders will still be interested in being long of this pair, and/or in certain Yen crosses, but must swallow the risk of Bank of Japan intervention causing fast and heavy losses. Vanguard sees ¥170 as a possible target if the Bank of Japan fails to boost yields soon.
Yesterday’s release of the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes of the previous meeting contained no surprises, with participants saying they were waiting for more evidence inflation is cooling before making any rate cuts. However, Fed Chair Powell has subsequently used what is arguably more dovish language on inflation since that meeting took place.
In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar is the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open, while the US Dollar is the weakest. However, the numbers are relatively small so maybe not very meaningful. It is also worth noting that the US Dollar remains within a valid long-term bullish trend despite its strong loss yesterday when it dropped by the most in 3 weeks after the US services sector contracted in June the most strongly in 4 years, causing Treasury yields to fall.
There are increasing rumours that President Biden may drop out of the Presidential race as President Trump starts to open a bigger lead in opinion polls following Biden’s disastrous debate performance. Betting markets suggest a 64% chance that he will withdraw.
There will be a release of Swiss CPI (inflation) data today which is expected to show the month-on-month increase falling from 0.3% to 0.1%.
There will be a general election in the UK today, which is expected to bring the opposite Labour Party to power for the first time in 14 years with a landslide victory.
It is a public holiday in the USA today (4th of July) so US markets will be closed.
The US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast was a bit lower than expected yesterday, while US Unemployment Claims data was exactly as expected.