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Despite threats, the Iranian regime seems to have taken no retaliatory action against the USA, while it may also be losing its ability to bother Israel with missiles.

1. Following Saturday night’s American attack on Iran’s three major nuclear facilities, speculation has been mounting about an Iranian counter strike against US forces and interests, and there is even talk of Iran activating sleeper cells on US soil to carry out attacks against targets on the US mainland. So far, nothing has occurred, and while markets arguably remain nervous, risk assets have in fact risen a little since markets opened a few hours ago.
2. Israel has continued its bombing campaign, widening its strikes to include strategic military assets, as well as surface to surface missiles on the ground. Over the past 24 hours, Iran has succeeded in sending only a single missile into Israel, which was intercepted. Despite Iranian propaganda to the contrary, is lack of bite against Israel now is striking.
3. Although the Iranian Parliament has voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, which would send crude oil prices soaring and deliver a strong economic shock to the global economy, no action to this effect has yet materialized. US Secretary Rubio has reached out to China, which would suffer greatly if Iran took such action, It is worth noting that Iran’s oil exports, upon which it relies hugely for revenue, would also be blocked if the Strait were closed.
4. The price of WTI Crude Oil remains relatively high, but has sold off during the Asian session, indicating a market assessment that a closure of the Strait currently looks unlikely.
5. The price of Gold, a key safe haven, has also declined over the Asian session, reinforcing my point above.
6. The Forex market is more active this morning. Since the Tokyo open, the strongest major currency has been the Swiss Franc, while the weakest has been the Japanese Yen, with the CHF/JPY currency cross now looking very bullish and trading at a multi-decade high. The EUR/USD currency pair has risen in line with its bullish long-term trend. The US Dollar is hardly moving so far.
7. There will be releases today of Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI data for the USA, Germany, the UK, and France.